NSE Nifty 50 Outlook For November 2013

While the biggest challenge in the financial markets is to predict price action, we at MoneyPlanters are committed to offer our best, with state of the art analysis and accurate analysis.  With more than a thousand stocks to choose from, we have outlined the reasons to choose Nifty 50 in an earlier post. Here is an analysis of where the index stands and what could be expected in the near future.

We shall be using multiple approaches in our analysis which will give a clearer picture as to what can come up next in the markets. Our analysis will include Gann, Elliott, Camarilla and Wolfe techniques which are the best in the industry. Apart from that, this article will give you a unique analysis approach which extracts the finest details from all the analysis methods named above. Not only will this article equip you with important trading levels, but you will also get to know prevalent trends and expected trend reversal dates on the NSE Nifty 50.

Camarilla Analysis and Wolfe Wave Analysis


NSE Nifty 50 Wolfe Wave

We can see that the NSE Nifty is trading L3 level and L4 level of 6131 and 5964 respectively. Camarilla analysis of the situation depicts that the index will find very strong support at 5964 and may bounce higher for some time. However, the prevalent trend being bearish as we will discuss shortly, we can see further downside below 5964 up to 5627, which is the L5 Camarilla level for November.
Lets take a look at what Wolfe Waves have to say. Looking at the chart, we can clearly see that The Nifty has reversed near the red line connecting 1 - 3 - 5 which is a resistance line. As per Wolfe Wave theory, once this reversal occurs, the ticker is expected to touch the line joining  1 and 4 which can be seen as a yellow line on the chart. Though there could be reversals in between , we can still expect Nifty 50 to drop further towards the yellow line as shown in the chart.

Elliott Wave Analysis


NSE Nifty 50 Daily Elliott


Let us take a look at the same Nifty chart with Elliott waves marked on it. A daily chart, as shown below, at a glance gives the same picture as was given by the Wolfe Wave chart. Nifty outlook for the near future seems bearish since there has been a breach of trend on the 6th of November 2013. While a wave 3 was in the making on the Minor time frame, the index has clearly broken the trend and is expected to show further downside in the coming few days.

NSE Nifty 50 Weekly Elliott

Nifty outlook on weekly charts, as shown in the image below is bearish again. We again find a wave 3 in progress which has been interrupted by the bearish movements in the last two bars. We can hence infer that some more bearish movement is expected in the markets.

Gann Analysis


Here is the most interesting part of all. Once we have established which trend is predominant in the market, it is important to understand how long the trend will prevail. W D Gann's analysis methods help us identify likely trend reversal dates.
15th November was a reversal date as per Gann studies and if the market closes above 6100 on the 19th of November, we shall be sure that a reversal has occurred. Further reversal dates are the 20th of November 2013 and the 30th of November 2013.
With an overall negative bias on the NSE Nifty outlook and waiting for the next reversal we are yet to see what the markets have in store for us.
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