The Nifty In February




Sunday, 5 February 2012

While Gann analysis does show that the Nifty did reverse from the previous downtrend on the 21st of December, 2011, Camarilla levels for the month of February still depict some weakness in the index.  The index has just crossed a major resistance of 5307 and is headed upwards. Some rally is expected in the index once its crosses the H3 level as it is already in a positive bias.

Traders are advised to go long above 5372, which is the H3 level for the month of February, 2012. That should take the index forward till 5545, which is the H4 level for the month.
Important dates on which reversal might occur are as follows :

3rd February, 2012
10th February, 2012
21st February, 2012
2nd March, 2012
15th March, 2012

In terms of trading days, traders may watch out for 41, 44, 52, 63, and 67 trading days from 20th December, 2011. Please take special note of the 44th trading day from 20th December, 2011. 

As on EOD 8th February, 2012 we can see that the index is unable to cross the Gann resistance level of 5423. Though it did attempt to cross and move above the H3 level as mentioned above, the major resistance at 5423 is preventing it from soaring higher.

The index just survived a disaster around Christmas. Nifty charts as on EOD 10th February, 2012 are standing at a very crucial juncture. The index is under a positive bias but is facing severe resistance at the Gann resistance level of 5423 as pointed out above. 


Though Gann trendlines have been broken and the Camarilla H3 level has been penetrated too, the index is facing severe resistance at the Gann 360 degree level. 
Traders are advised to stay out of the market for the time being until a definitive indication is obtained from the markets as to where it is headed.

The market is also standing on a Gann reversal date. A good amount of drop can be expected when the market opens on Monday, the 13th of February, 2012. However, when the market reverses the trend is yet to be confirmed.


Since no significant drop was seen on Monday, all we could wait for was the penetration of the 360 degree Gann resistance level. This happened today on the 15th of February, 2012 at market open and hence we were open to take long positions. The next target for the Nifty is at the H4 level of 5545.

Alert : 44 trading days from the 20th of December, 2011 falls on the 20th of February, 2012. Also, another calculation shows that the 21st of February is an important date on which a reversal is likely. Traders are advised to be careful about their longs.

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